Crude Oil Trading Report: Oil Scenarios On US-Iran Tension
Oil Scenarios on US-Iran Tension
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Oil Producer Report: “Sentiment Pendulum” swings for oil
Brent has been stuck in a compressed $60-63/bbl range since its rally from the late December abyss, historically a reliable indicator that a pop in volatility awaits. The narrow range…
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Oil Producer Report: Why is Brent not higher ?
Brent has been stuck in a compressed $60-63/bbl range since its rally from the late December abyss, historically a reliable indicator that a pop in volatility awaits. The narrow range…
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Crude Oil Trading Report: Growing producer queue to hedge
Brent has been stuck in a compressed $60-63/bbl range since its rally from the late December abyss, historically a reliable indicator that a pop in volatility awaits. The narrow range…
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Crude Oil Trading Report: $50/bbl Brent, where to from here?
2018 saw a brutal swing in sentiment that has left the oil market with a nasty hang over into year-end. The latest move lower has sparked industry concern, however, sentiment…
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Crude Oil Trading Report: Scenarios ahead of OPEC & G20
The market setup is at a critical juncture with both the G20 this weekend and the OPEC meeting on Dec 6th. The outcome will be decisive for the direction of…
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Crude Oil Trading Report: Exactly what OPEC+ doesn’t want
We can send our thanks to President Trump for triggering the recent round trip to $86 bbl and back to $70/bbl. Increased production from OPEC+ to offset “Iran exports to…
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Oil & Money Conference: Our key takeaways
We attended the 39th annual Oil & Money Conference in London this past week as well as the Energy Intelligence's Petroleum Executive of the Year, with BP’s Bob Dudley receiving…
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Crude Oil Trading Report: Bullish narrative intensifies
The physical has clearly tightened, reinforcing the bullish narrative on geopolitical and supply risks for Brent. Consumer buying appears insatiable and is pushing backend prices to 3-year highs while increased…
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Crude Oil Trading Report: Tailwinds for Brent hedges
Supply disruptions, trade wars and falling OPEC share capacity dominate the headlines but as the oil market settles in for the summer lull the growing disconnect between physical and paper…
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Crude Oil Trading Report: Key Trends Unfolding for Brent Producers
Supply disruptions, trade wars and falling OPEC share capacity dominate the headlines but as the oil market settles in for the summer lull the growing disconnect between physical and paper…
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Crude Oil Trading Report: Trading view on OPEC+
All numbers on potential OPEC production increases have by now been thrown around: Up to 1.5 mb/d release last week, down to the now consensus 300 - 600 kb/d latest to…
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Crude Oil Trading Report: Trend Exhaustion?
Geo-political headlines on Iran, Venezuela, and Middle East tensions pushed oil though $80/bbl. A new narrative focused on demand destruction, emerging market stress, Brent contango and rising interest rates is…
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Crude Oil Trading Report: Emotional market now ignited
The market was positioned for Trump’s pull-out of the Iran deal but unprepared for the hawkish tone. For anyone with “skin in the game” it was perceived more as a…
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Crude Oil Trading Report: $80+ bbl Brent target
Amid the increased “noise level”, the most important news to hit the tape was Saudi’s $80 bbl target (from Bloomberg and then a recent Reuters article of $100 bbl). Technicals…
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Crude Oil Trading Report: Better entry point ahead for producers
The market is looking for direction, pinned between seasonal weakness and verbal intervention from Saudi/Russia defending the $60 bbl in Brent. We see better entry points ahead for commercial producers…
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Crude Oil Trading Report: Saudi springs into action
The length built by the investor community means oil markets are much more susceptible to macro variables, while the repricing of volatility and backwardation challenge producer hedging programs. Saudi and…
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Crude Oil Trading Report: Volatility Repricing Opportunity
Brent selling ignited from a spill-over of equity quant funds rebalancing as volatility across all assets increased. There is a genuine fear that we might be in the middle of…
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Crude Oil Trading Report: No Pullback ?
At this juncture, oil markets must be traded in the broader global, macro context of “risk assets”, especially equities as oil has seen a surge of investor flows pile into…
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Crude Oil Trading Report: “Liquidity infused” markets
At this juncture, oil markets must be traded in the broader global, macro context of “risk assets”, especially equities as oil has seen a surge of investor flows pile into…
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Crude Oil Trading Report: OPEC defending the $60 put
The OPEC/NOPEC agreement to extend production cuts raises the soft floor from $50/bbl to $60/bbl based on Saudi/Russia solidarity. We expect $60/bbl to be immediately (verbally) defended if crossed. OPEC…
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Crude Oil Trading Report: Trading view on OPEC
The market setup has reached a binary turning point: 1) priced for deal extension cuts well into 2018, 2) for continued stock draws with strong products demand and 3) for…
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Crude Oil Trading Report: Brent on fire after Saudi “Put” moved to $60 bbl
Market sentiment shifts from re-balancing to tightening as a flurry of data, supply concerns and headlines feeds higher momentum. All stars aligned for OPEC as it “manages” the paper market…
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Crude Oil Trading Report: Market wants up
Dwindling stocks brings explosive upside potential near-term with supply buffer all but disappeared, while global production outages hits 6-year lows. The oil market has moved past the collapse in distillate…
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Oil & Money – Takeaways & hedging implications
It was great to attend the annual Oil & Money conference in London this past week. Interestingly, natural gas was allocated a full day, highlighting its importance in Big Oil’s…
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Crude Oil Trading Report: Flurry of data reignites sentiment
Saudi put firmly in place. OPEC “managing the market” with headlines , suggests shallow pullbacks, higher lows. Cautious optimism reigns. Hedge funds buying short-dated puts and oil producers using rallies…
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Crude Oil Trading Report: Producers responsive to price in upper band
Fundamentals, macro drivers and explosive geopolitical risks underpin a healthy backdrop to the crude oil market into the OPEC meeting on 30 November. Sentiment is upbeat, while record net length…
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Crude Oil Trading Report: OPEC/SAUDI got what they wanted: backwardation – Brent positioning extreme but largest clips sitting in-the-money
All the excitement in oil is focused and positioned on the very front of the curve. The result has been a phenomenal, multi-year record move in timespreads. In a classic…
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Crude Oil Trading Report: Market has repriced – Collective amnesia in markets means the June/July sentiment “abyss” is now past
Brent is 5% higher since the markets returned to action post the Labour Day break. As a result, the market has repriced any residual low sentiment from the June/July lows.…
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Crude Oil Trading Report: Shift in paper market sentiment leads to shift in key points to watch
Participants are back from holidays; we take stock of the paper market, how sentiment has changed and the dominant factors driving oil prices. CTAs and momentum funds are currently taking…
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Crude Oil Trading Report: Oil price late rally triggers CTA buy signals – Inflection points decisive early next week
The main event this week was not the “beat” in DOE inventory data, Shell’s force majeure on Bonny light or OPEC related news. The single most important event, in our…
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Crude Oil Trading Report: Oil price vulnerable on sentiment – trend following funds pressing hard – possible country hedge going through
Latest exchange data available points to further short positioning in both Brent and WTI. CTAs/ trend following funds have “clean” pivot points and are in control still. As we write,…
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Crude Oil Trading Report: Sentiment has turned. Price moving from an upside correction to developing a technical up-trend
Record short positioning, firm call skew, and higher oil prices on the back of unconvincing inventory data raises the question as to where the next incremental seller will emerge. The…
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Crude Oil Trading Report: Extreme negative sentiment leads to binary opinions on price and make for tougher hedging decisions. Are we near a floor at current price levels?
Sentiment in oil markets is extremely bearish. Momentum funds are piling on shorts and have clear targets and pivot points that have worked incredibly well for the past four weeks.…
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Crude Oil Trading Report: The Pendulum Swings – Bearish sentiment overtakes 2H17 stock draws
Sentiment in oil markets is in full bearish swing with last week’s DOE stock builds putting a nail in the coffin for light sweet prices. Shorts are in clear control…
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Crude Oil Trading Report: “Saudi Put” provides opportunity for traders and for producers to adjust hedges
OPEC has delivered real, impacting cuts but has communicated poorly to a bruised and low confidence paper market setup for a "beat". This misread or (temporary) misappreciation of the crude…
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Crude Oil Trading Report: OPEC meeting ahead – Expectations and its impact for oil (commercial) producers
Oil prices have now recovered back into the post OPEC/NOPEC range. With OPEC’s meeting tomorrow on 25th May, we look at the most plausible outcomes, what it means for the…
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Crude Oil Trading Report: Price forming a floor one week from official OPEC meeting – hedging activity much reduced
Analysing hedging flows and chart technicals have provided key inflection points for oil prices. The picture, as it currently stands, suggests that oil prices are forming a floor on the…
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Crude Oil Trading Report: Derivatives market could be caught out by an OPEC “shock” announcement – Market still an opportunity for producers to restructure hedges
Last week’s selloff to last Friday’s low of $46.65 bbl in Brent caused a lot of psychological damage in the market. As it stands today, investor positioning has “cleaned up”,…
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Oil Trading Report: OPEC price gains wiped out – Momentum funds selling hard – Paper market anxious for Saudi guidance – Opportunity for producers to restructure
Oil is down $10 bbl since recent highs, erasing all post OPEC/NOPEC price gains. Market struggles to explain the selling, as not driven by fundamentals. Momentum funds are in position…
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Oil Trading Report: Higher volatility as price reaches US producer strikes levels – Hedges for producers unattractive at current levels
Oil down almost $5 bbl in just 2 weeks and currently trading below the post OPEC/NOPEC deal. Options volatility (implied vols) moved higher on the price pullback. While producer (commercial)…
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Crude Oil Technical Report: Selloff driven by technical signals – fundamentals still constructive
The heavy selling and volatility Wednesday was driven by the front of the curve technical positioning. Gasoline again proved to be a good “leading indicator” for crude flat price direction,…
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Crude Oil Market: Price back in the range – OPEC “pushing” for backwardation – Fundamentals to provide tailwind
The oil price is $6+ bbl higher from recent intraday low in only a few trading sessions. The long positioning “washout” appears to be behind us and the market perception…
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Trader Short-Term Oil Comment
Oil prices higher as geopolitical risk is putting $1 or so premium to price. This has not been the case for long. The consequences are unclear as Syria’s oil is…
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