All numbers on potential OPEC production increases have by now been thrown around: Up to 1.5 mb/d release last week, down to the now consensus 300 – 600 kb/d latest to hit the tape.
The market knows that OPEC+ are in a situation where nearby weakness in the physical market is expected to quickly tighten in 2H. Oil is now quickly becoming a political commodity and cracks may be appearing in the cartel.
In Brent, investors are still massively setup for a gradual increase in OPEC production and higher prices into 2H 2018.
In this report we look at the outcomes of the OPEC meeting and share our trading views.
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