Oil prices higher as geopolitical risk is putting $1 or so premium to price. This has not been the case for long. The consequences are unclear as Syria’s oil is globally insignificant.
Events could derail the OPEC/NOPEC or more precisely the Saudi/Russia agreement. Flip-side things look setup for a potential Iran increase/reinstatement in sanctions in my view which would be beneficial to US producers obviously. Longer term impact or a further deterioration could be negative demand growth but this is still far away.
Short-term, a spike of perceived increase risk to the region. From a trader point of view, my take is that flat price was oversold and due for the move higher, with or without these events (as I have been sharing in past ~ couple weeks).
The chart below of ICE brent front month is interesting as a lot has happened. You can clearly see that oil price is practically back to early March level. The chart shows (in green) the consecutive “up days” as the market has been clearing the negative sentiment after the steep selloff in the first part of March.

CHART 1 – BRT Price – Source: CTC & Bloomberg
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