It was great to attend the annual Oil & Money conference in London this past week. Interestingly, natural gas was allocated a full day, highlighting its importance in Big Oil’s…
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Saudi put firmly in place. OPEC “managing the market” with headlines , suggests shallow pullbacks, higher lows. Cautious optimism reigns. Hedge funds buying short-dated puts and oil producers using rallies…
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Fundamentals, macro drivers and explosive geopolitical risks underpin a healthy backdrop to the crude oil market into the OPEC meeting on 30 November. Sentiment is upbeat, while record net length…
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All the excitement in oil is focused and positioned on the very front of the curve. The result has been a phenomenal, multi-year record move in timespreads. In a classic…
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Brent is 5% higher since the markets returned to action post the Labour Day break. As a result, the market has repriced any residual low sentiment from the June/July lows.…
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Participants are back from holidays; we take stock of the paper market, how sentiment has changed and the dominant factors driving oil prices. CTAs and momentum funds are currently taking…
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The main event this week was not the “beat” in DOE inventory data, Shell’s force majeure on Bonny light or OPEC related news. The single most important event, in our…
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Latest exchange data available points to further short positioning in both Brent and WTI. CTAs/ trend following funds have “clean” pivot points and are in control still. As we write,…
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Record short positioning, firm call skew, and higher oil prices on the back of unconvincing inventory data raises the question as to where the next incremental seller will emerge. The…
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Sentiment in oil markets is extremely bearish. Momentum funds are piling on shorts and have clear targets and pivot points that have worked incredibly well for the past four weeks.…
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Sentiment in oil markets is in full bearish swing with last week’s DOE stock builds putting a nail in the coffin for light sweet prices. Shorts are in clear control…
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OPEC has delivered real, impacting cuts but has communicated poorly to a bruised and low confidence paper market setup for a "beat". This misread or (temporary) misappreciation of the crude…
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