Geo-political headlines on Iran, Venezuela, and Middle East tensions pushed oil though $80/bbl. A new narrative focused on demand destruction, emerging market stress, Brent contango and rising interest rates is…
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The market was positioned for Trump’s pull-out of the Iran deal but unprepared for the hawkish tone. For anyone with “skin in the game” it was perceived more as a…
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Amid the increased “noise level”, the most important news to hit the tape was Saudi’s $80 bbl target (from Bloomberg and then a recent Reuters article of $100 bbl). Technicals…
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The market is looking for direction, pinned between seasonal weakness and verbal intervention from Saudi/Russia defending the $60 bbl in Brent. We see better entry points ahead for commercial producers…
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The length built by the investor community means oil markets are much more susceptible to macro variables, while the repricing of volatility and backwardation challenge producer hedging programs. Saudi and…
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Brent selling ignited from a spill-over of equity quant funds rebalancing as volatility across all assets increased. There is a genuine fear that we might be in the middle of…
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At this juncture, oil markets must be traded in the broader global, macro context of “risk assets”, especially equities as oil has seen a surge of investor flows pile into…
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At this juncture, oil markets must be traded in the broader global, macro context of “risk assets”, especially equities as oil has seen a surge of investor flows pile into…
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The OPEC/NOPEC agreement to extend production cuts raises the soft floor from $50/bbl to $60/bbl based on Saudi/Russia solidarity. We expect $60/bbl to be immediately (verbally) defended if crossed. OPEC…
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The market setup has reached a binary turning point: 1) priced for deal extension cuts well into 2018, 2) for continued stock draws with strong products demand and 3) for…
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Market sentiment shifts from re-balancing to tightening as a flurry of data, supply concerns and headlines feeds higher momentum. All stars aligned for OPEC as it “manages” the paper market…
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Dwindling stocks brings explosive upside potential near-term with supply buffer all but disappeared, while global production outages hits 6-year lows. The oil market has moved past the collapse in distillate…
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